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Energy analysts have expressed significant caution regarding recent predictions that US energy majors will quickly commit tens of billions of dollars to revive the country's crumbling oil infrastructure.

The Need for Iron-Clad Guarantees

Absent an solid promise of complete repayment from the US federal government, specialists predict global energy giants to proceed with extreme caution.

“It seems too early to discuss any future business activities,” a representative stated this weekend.

The ambitious timeline of under 18 months has been publicly suggested. Yet, realistic assessments suggest a more cautious outlook.

A Probable Schedule

“It’s probably going to take 36 months for any significant production bounce,” said one industry expert.

He suggested oil companies would likely spend:

• Year one: Securing new operating agreements.
• The second year: Commencing overhaul of facilities.
• Final phase: Being able to boost output.

This would lead to an increase of around half a million bpd maybe by the end of the decade.

Interest vs. Willingness for Spending

Analysts draw a important separation between firms' attention and their readiness to commit heavily.

“I believe their attention is an high score, on a range of ten. I think their willingness is a much lower, because there is a lack of certainty yet.”

Seasoned diplomats in the region share this view. They believe that firms will politically call it fantastic while actually moving with great care.

The Enormous Cost

The financial investment would be enormous. University estimates suggest that increasing production by between 500,000 and a million barrels per day would require over $10 billion in investment over two to three years.

But, restoring output to previous levels of around 2.5 million bpd could require a staggering $80 billion to $90 billion over many more years.

The Unanswered Issue of Government Backing

The suggestion of firms being paid back by the US taxpayer has been often mentioned. Nevertheless, specific plans on any guarantee have so far not been forthcoming.

The absence of a solid plan is the main reason behind the industry's caution. Companies seek protection against nationalization and the chance that a future president could renege on any deal.

“It is essential to be insured against political change, that we’ve witnessed in Venezuela already.”

Ultimately, while political promises runs high, the operational risks suggest a path of slow deliberation for potential major venture in the country's energy industry.