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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."